Tesla is set to report earnings Wednesday for the first time since President Donald Trump — a close ally of CEO Elon Musk — returned to the White House.
The fourth-quarter results conclude a mixed year for Tesla. While the company’s profits were pressured by vehicle price cuts introduced amid intensifying electric vehicle (EV) competition, Musk’s monumental bet on Trump’s candidacy proved successful.
Analysts have forecast modestly higher earnings per share compared with the year-ago period. However, the focus of the call will be on Musk’s outlook for the coming term.
Tesla watchers are keen to hear the latest from Musk on whether new EV models planned for 2025 are still on track and if he still expects auto sales to increase 20 to 30 percent in 2025.
There is also much curiosity about how Musk’s alliance with Trump — part of the billionaire’s increasingly assertive advocacy on behalf of far-right politicians worldwide — will affect Tesla.
Some have become very bullish about the company.
“Our time spent speaking to many in the Beltway the last few weeks give us a growing confidence the Trump White House the next 4 years will be a ‘total game changer’ for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years,” said a note from Wedbush that raised Tesla’s share price target.
But among the deluge of opening-day White House executive orders, Trump last week took direct aim at EVs, vowing to undo policies that disadvantage gasoline-powered cars and signaling a potential rollback of US tax credits for EVs.
The actions were not a surprise given Trump’s stated hostility to EVs during the presidential campaign.
Yet shares of Tesla have soared more than 55 percent since the election.
Market watchers believe Tesla could benefit from new policies from Washington to promote autonomous driving, which Musk has described as a potentially huge market for his company.
“A lot will rest on (Musk’s) ability to keep investors focused on the long-term story and overlooking some of the near-term headwinds,” Garrett Nelson, analyst at CFRA Research, said of Wednesday’s earnings.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported full-year auto sales of just under 1.8 million vehicles, a slight decline from 2023 after missing fourth-quarter targets.
Tesla has faced pressure to roll out new vehicles, particularly at lower price points. Investors cheered a Musk statement in July that he plans a new, more affordable model in the first half of 2025, but the company has provided few details since.
Musk also said in October he expects a 20 to 30 percent rise in auto sales this year.
But a January 24 note from Morgan Stanley said analysts now expect around a 10 percent production increase “given pressures on the EV market.”
National autonomous policy?
Part of Tesla’s more than $1.2 trillion market valuation is based on confidence that Musk will achieve new technological feats with autonomous driving, robotics and artificial intelligence.
Thus far, Tesla driver-assistance programs like “autopilot” and “full self-driving” have lagged other companies, such as Waymo, in achieving driverless functionality without human supervision.
But Musk has spoken of aggressive plans for commercializing robotaxi services under a timetable some experts consider unrealistic, given Tesla’s achievements thus far.
Prior to the election, Musk highlighted support for a national policy on autonomous driving during Tesla’s October conference call.
Musk will likely be prompted to comment on what he expects regulations on national autonomous driving to look like now that he has a seat at the table in Washington.
Wednesday’s earnings call comes as Musk’s widening influence draws more attention and blowback.
A coalition that includes a public workers union has filed a lawsuit to block Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, arguing the panel flouts federal laws and is “beset” by the conflicts of interest of an extremist “libertarian billionaire class.”
And only days after being criticized for a hand gesture at Trump’s inauguration that resembled a Nazi salute, Musk drew scrutiny last weekend for reiterating support for Germany’s far-right, anti-immigrant AfD party, including comments that young Germans should feel able “to move beyond” expressing regret for the Holocaust.
AFP
