On March 6, 2025, chaos erupted at the Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company (DisCo) in Lagos when a group of Nigerian Air Force personnel stormed the premises. Their reason? The power supply to their base had been disconnected. The attack, reminiscent of a military-style raid, left DisCo staff in panic and confusion.
This incident occurred at a time when Nigerians were still processing the news that the country’s power generation had increased from an embarrassingly low 4,000 megawatts—woefully inadequate for a nation of over 200 million people—to 5,800 megawatts. Coincidentally, following the assault on Ikeja DisCo, the national electricity grid suffered yet another collapse on March 7, 2025, plunging the nation into darkness.
Some conspiracy theorists speculate that the grid failure may have been an act of silent protest by electricity workers, sympathizing with their assaulted colleagues. Others point to the alarming pattern: the March 7 collapse was the third nationwide blackout in just three months, with the previous one occurring on February 12. A look at historical data paints an even grimmer picture—Nigeria experienced 12 system failures last year, averaging one per month, while over the past decade, the grid has collapsed more than 100 times, often leaving the country without power for hours or even days.
The Root Cause Of Nigeria’s Power Crisis
At the heart of this crisis lies an aging electricity infrastructure inherited from the colonial era, now severely outdated. To illustrate the severity of the situation, consider this analogy:
A friend of mine owned a battered Volkswagen Beetle while studying at the University of Benin. The car was so old and unreliable that it wouldn’t start with just the turn of a key—it needed to be pushed to get moving. Aware of this, my friend always parked on a slope, ensuring he could start the car without help. This strategy allowed him to keep using the car, even though it was far from ideal. However, if an unsuspecting driver parked it on flat ground, they would be stranded without assistance.
Nigeria’s power system is like that Volkswagen Beetle—an outdated, fragile infrastructure barely kept running by experienced operators who know its weaknesses. For decades, these professionals have managed to sustain the grid at a suboptimal level, much like my friend kept his car running. However, when a “new driver”—in this case, the Minister of Power, Mr. Adebayo Adelabu—attempts to overload the system without addressing its weaknesses, the result is frequent, catastrophic failures. Experts have warned that the transmission infrastructure is too fragile to handle increased power loads, yet these warnings have been ignored, leading to repeated grid collapses.
A Century Of Neglect
Nigeria’s electricity system has suffered from a lack of investment, maintenance, and modernization since colonial times. Infrastructure that should be displayed in a museum as a relic of the past remains the backbone of the nation’s power supply. For nearly a century, successive governments have failed to replace this antiquated system, leaving Nigeria trapped in a cycle of power shortages and economic stagnation.
If Nigeria is to escape this crisis, urgent reforms and large-scale investments in modern electricity infrastructure are needed. Without these changes, the country will remain stuck with a failing system—much like a driver trying to start a broken-down car on level ground, hoping for a miracle.
Why Nigeria’s Power Supply Remains Unstable 65 Years After Independence
More than six decades after gaining independence, Nigeria continues to struggle with an unreliable power supply, largely due to its outdated electricity infrastructure. The country’s national grid dates back to the colonial era, with its foundations laid as early as 1914, when the northern and southern protectorates were amalgamated. Despite the passage of time, the power sector has seen little progress, particularly in the transmission segment, which remains in a state of disrepair.
The reason for this is rooted in the flawed privatization of the power sector. While the generation (GenCos) and distribution (DisCos) segments were transferred to private ownership, the transmission network remained under government control through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). As a result, while private investors have upgraded parts of the generation and distribution infrastructure, the transmission system has remained stagnant due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and lack of investment.
A Flawed Privatization Process
The unbundling of Nigeria’s power sector began in 2005 under President Olusegun Obasanjo, with Vice President Atiku Abubakar leading the initiative and Nasir El-Rufai overseeing it as Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). The process continued under President Goodluck Jonathan, who, in 2013, further liberalised the sector by selling power assets to private investors.
However, political conflicts—particularly the fallout between Obasanjo and Abubakar towards the end of their tenure—disrupted what could have been a successful transition. Unlike the telecommunications sector, which attracted major global players like MTN and Econet during its privatisation, the power sector was largely taken over by local businessmen with limited financial and technical expertise. Instead of industry giants like Siemens or General Electric, Nigeria’s electricity assets ended up in the hands of investors who lacked the capacity to revamp the sector.
Limited Success And Persistent Challenges
A decade after privatization, the expected improvements in power supply have not materialized. While a few DisCos —such as Ikeja, Eko, and Abuja—have made some progress, many others struggle to remain viable. On the other hand, the generation sector has seen notable improvements, with output increasing from 4,000 megawatts to 15,000 megawatts due to investments in upgrading old power plants and new entrants like Azure Power in Edo State and Geometric Power in Abia State.
However, the biggest bottleneck remains the transmission network. Despite the increased power generation, only a fraction of the electricity produced reaches end-users due to the outdated and insufficient transmission infrastructure, which is at least 50 years old. The inefficiency of TCN—still under government control—has prevented the electricity sector from functioning optimally.
A Better Approach To Power Sector Reform
Nigeria’s electricity privatisation model deviates from global best practices. In many countries, the entire power supply chain—generation, transmission, and distribution—is sold to a single investor, ensuring integrated operations and accountability. In contrast, Nigeria split the sector into three separate entities, each with different operators who have varying capacities and resources. This fragmented approach has resulted in inefficiencies, with TCN becoming the weak link in the value chain.
To address this issue, Nigeria must either privatize the transmission segment to attract serious investors or adopt a more integrated approach to power sector management. Without these reforms, the country will continue to experience erratic power supply, regardless of how much electricity is generated.
Strengthening Nigeria’s Power Sector: Lessons From China And India
Nigeria’s electricity supply chain—spanning generation, transmission, and distribution—has proven to be weak, particularly at the points where these three segments intersect. This situation can be likened to a relay race where the baton handoff between runners is frequently botched, leading to inefficiencies and failures.
In more advanced economies, power companies are typically granted exclusive market zones where they generate, transmit, and distribute electricity seamlessly. However, Nigeria adopted a different approach, similar to the telecom sector, where multiple operators were licensed to handle different aspects of the power supply chain in an interconnected system. This model, while theoretically workable, has not delivered the expected results due to poor coordination and weak infrastructure.
To understand the depth of the problem, Nigeria’s power sector can be compared to a river that began to be polluted in 2005, became heavily contaminated by 2013, and now, in 2025, requires urgent purification. Instead of continuous complaints about the failures in the sector, it is time to take decisive action to remove the barriers hindering the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Industrialization—a key driver of national development—depends on solving this crisis.
Learning From China And India
A possible way forward is to draw lessons from China and India, two countries that were once in similar power supply crises but successfully transformed into industrial powerhouses.
China’s Strategy For Electrification
China tackled its electricity challenges through a multi-pronged strategy, integrating electrification into its national development plans as part of its broader poverty eradication strategy. Key steps included:
1. Infrastructure Development: The “Infrastructure to Every Village Project” ensured that electricity, roads, water, and telecoms reached rural areas.
2. Stakeholder Coordination: The central government led policy formulation and investment, while provincial governments handled implementation. This coordination was critical in expanding and upgrading the national grid.
3. Renewable Energy Investments: China aggressively pursued clean energy, setting a target for non-fossil energy to contribute 20% of its total energy consumption by 2025. It built mega renewable energy projects, smart grids, and hybrid high-voltage transmission lines to balance power supply across regions.
These efforts culminated in China achieving full electrification by 2015, positioning the country as the world’s leading industrial hub.
